If we had to use one word to describe 2023, it would probably be… ‘weird’.

There’s no denying the challenges the market faced last year. Though, after a pretty big blow in the summer, things are starting to look up.

What does that mean for the year ahead though?

Should you be preparing for the worst? Is it time to start looking for an alternative career path? Or, are we facing a far more optimistic picture?

At RULE HQ, we’ve pooled our knowledge and years of experience together to give our take on what 2024 has in store plus some key trends to look out for.

Our take on 2023

Looking back to 2008 (probably the most troublesome market we’ve faced in recent history) we were all in the same boat. Recruiters up and down the country were screwed, and it took something really special to come out of it with more than just a renewed sense of resilience.

Compare that to 2023 and we see an altogether different picture. The success or failure of agencies depended on so many varying factors. Businesses in some regions did well, while others struggled. Businesses that were agile and capable of pivoting seemed to survive, yet some big players went under.

So, what went wrong? Weathering a storm is nothing new to recruitment, but so much comes down to how prepared an agency is.

Not long ago, American agencies who for so often were seen as the golden child of UK owned firms, were basically printing money as a result of their endless supply of opportunities. However this year they took a beating from the market. The high head counts, expensive salaries, extortionate rents and general running costs meant they couldn’t keep up with their overheads.

Tech, Life Sciences and agencies with VC funding also had a year to forget. When the market slows, VCs stop lending and the money quickly runs out. Whereas smaller agencies with sensible finances and a solid buffer would see 2023 as little more than a blip.

Overall, a year like 2023 is great for seeing what a recruiter is made of. It’s a year where your mindset is called into question. We’ve seen both senior and less experienced recruiters falter from this. Those who falter can generally be put into two camps. There are either the experienced recruiters who have forgotten what it means to struggle through tough times and can’t remember how to go about business development. Then there are the less experienced recruiters who have only known easy markets. They’ve started their careers in a period where jobs come easily and businesses often hire sub-par talent because the market is so competitive. These recruiters have had to learn or relearn what it means to hustle through periods of low opportunity.

But, is there reason to be optimistic in 2024?

Our predictions for the market in 2024

This year, things look like they’re going to settle down into a more comfortable rhythm. Towards the end of 2023, things were already picking up and we see no reason why this shouldn’t continue. Private equity and venture capitalists usually work to five year cycles, so they’re going to see that dropping to four years now and will have to begin lending again. Interest rates will likely come down and base rates will stabilise, meaning there will be an injection of cash into the market meaning an uptake in businesses recruiting again.

Brexit (everyone’s favourite topic) has led to a shortage of skilled workers, but recruiters should really scrutinise their markets. The media may report that jobs are tailing off, but this isn’t necessarily the case for skilled jobs. Many recruiters are still finding themselves very busy indeed.

We’re not likely to see a big boom this year, but plenty of companies are reporting a steady return to a stable market, which is all you really need to be successful in recruitment. We barely see two bad years in a row, so as long as agencies have enough cash to keep a reasonable head count, we expect to see a return to business as usual… as long as we can go a year without a major invasion or global pandemic.

All in all, if you’ve managed to successfully navigate yourself through a sticky 2023, you’ll find 2024 to be far more rewarding. Take the skills you’ve learned from last year and keep pushing with the same tenacity and you’ll do well.

Trends to look out for in 2024

Working from home will continue to be a big topic for debate in 2024. We’ve seen plenty of agencies call their recruiters back to the office five days a week while others have chosen to remain flexible in their approach. This has upset many workers, meaning there’s plenty of movement in the market with candidates looking for new jobs. Recruiters are facing a market where they can’t really call all the shots any more. Those looking for high base salaries, excellent commission structure, exciting incentives and flexible working might have to reframe their expectations in 2024.

A self-fulfilling prophecy

Above all, the human mindset has left the greatest impression on us in 2023. People generally expect a downturn every 10 years. We’ve seen the financial crash in 2008, the pandemic in 2020, and we weren’t expecting another drop for a few more years yet. When the market did drop, it was demoralising. None of us were expecting it to be so dramatic and that can affect our will to continue. The market can be a self-fulfilling prophecy though. There was a want, a need, and a desire for things to pick up. Recruiters worked hard for it and it happened. This strength, character and fight can’t be learned and it will make for a very exciting 2024.

If you’re on the lookout for a new role, contact us for a confidential conversation about the market and which agencies we feel would be most suited to you. Alternatively, browse our job board to get a feel for the type of roles we currently have on offer.